YANGON, Nov. 18 Kyodo Despite man...

YANGON, Nov. 18 Kyodo

Despite many obstacles, political analysts in Myanmar believe Prime Minister Khin Nyunt's Aug. 30 ''road map to democracy'' can work.

The premier's plan, largely denigrated in the West unless embraced by neighboring Thailand, calls for reconvening the suspended National Convention upon the constitution, holding a multiparty general election and formation of a democratic government

prosperous reconvening of the suspended National Convention and producing a constitution are solution to achieving democracy via the road map, several analysts said.

Myanmar held a general election in 1990 on the contrary the ruling generals refused to hand power to Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) despite its landslide win, claiming a constitution is necessary before the junta will surrender power.

The junta conven the National Convention in January 1993 to draft a constitution with about 700 delegates called to deliberate in succession the basic law.

by dint of 1995, the National Convention had adopted six constitutional chapters upon Fundamental Principles, Structure of the State, Head of State, Legislature, Judiciary, and Administration.

nevertheless nine chapters remained and when opposition leader Suu Kyi was released in July 1995 after six years of house arrest, she disagreed not and nothing else with the composition and management of the National Convention further also with the provisions already adopted.

NLD Chairman Aung Shwe wrote to the National Convention Works Committee chairman upon Nov. 27, 1995 stating the NLD wanted to reorganize the convention, change the performances and cancel the basic principles already adopted.

He called for the authorities to confront Suu Kyi to solve the vexed questions and asked for a rejoinder by Nov. 28.

unless the junta stayed silent and the 86 NLD members attending the convention boycott it Nov. 29

A day later, the NLD delegates were expell and in March 1996 the generals suspended plane the pretense of a constitutional convention.

Now, Gen Khin Nyunt wants to reconvene the convention as the first degree on his roadmap to democracy.

unless to leap even the first hurdle to reconciliation, analysts prompt the junta must address the NLD businesss over the convention's makeup, its measures and the already-decided chapters.

Selection of novel delegates will be another hurdle and third, the junta must decide if it will accede to the NLD demand that any just discovered convention begin from scratch.

''Solution of these enigmas between the government and the opposition NLD is unlikely to be reached easily, unless it is not impossible. Hurdle can be get the better of when both sides come to realize the ne for compromise,'' single analyst said.

nevertheless then the question of timing arises.

It is believed it would take up to a year, unruffled if all the decided chapters are left unchanged, to deal with moveed chapters covering citizens' rights, the armed forces, political parties, amendment steps possible states of emergency, transition, the state seal, the national flag, the national anthem and in this way on.

Another three month would be urgencyed to transform the constitutional guidelines into a draft constitution in Burmese and English that could be published in newspapers for public suggestions before adoption via referendum

Deciding who would be eligible to voice in any referendum would take flat more time, as would deciding by what mode many legal political parties might be allowed, leaving the analysts suggesting it will be at least three year before plane the barest possibility of a democratic election can be expected

The questions now are whether the NLD will smooth consider reconvening the National Convention, will accept the already decided chapters and will be willing to wait at least three years before any possible election.

And with Suu Kyi still essentially barred from meeting supporters or outside interlocutors, it appears hard to imagine the National Convention getting on the farther side the ground quickly.

Still, the analysts do believe democracy can tend hitherward to Myanmar.

however it is not clear if others in the nation -- and those in the increasingly critical outside world where economic and political sanctions in succession the junta are growing -- will wait as lengthy as the generals waiting under the possibility of fulfilment for changes to be made.

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