TOKYO, March 24 Kyodo The North K...

TOKYO, March 24 Kyodo

The North Korean media remain in ominous silence since late last week about the motions of the leader, Kim Jong Il, who is believed to be anxiously watching the direction of the United States' war in succession Iraq.

to what degree will Iraq meet the overwhelming U forces' power? What will become of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein?

The crisis in East Asia is promot simultaneously with the war against Iraq and the scenarios might be a preview of a possible upheaval forward the Korean Peninsula involving Japan, the U China and Russia.

U President George W Bush, who is intent upon leading the war against Iraq luckily and wants to avoid a direct clash with pair enemies at once, refused to call the stalemate forward North Korea's development of nuclear weapons a ''crisis.''

The Bush administration is checking Kim's brinkmanship merely by having the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson and B-2 Stealth bombers take part in the newly come U.S.-South Korean joint military maneuvers called Foal Eagle.

Meanwhile, in a rare impel China held Arctic military exercises in its northeastern region, the hinterland of the Korean Peninsula, late in January, according to diplomatic sources in Tokyo.

A dispute throughout which is the danger, Iraq or North Korea, took place in the United States prior to the U military attack forward Iraq.

But from the viewpoint of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, it is obvious that North Korea is more dangerous than Iraq.

North Korea has already fielded intermediate-range missiles and biological-chemical weapons and is said to have a not many atomic bombs or to be in a final stage of developing nuclear weapons.

Bush, who described Iraq, North Korea and Iran as nations forming ''an axis of evil,'' picked Iraq as a target of his attacks.

North Korea has the potential of turning Seoul into a sea of flames, wiping U military bases in southern Korea off the map, and firing ballistic missiles equipped with biological-chemical warheads at Japan's major cities, including Tokyo.

North Korea will make of the like kind kamikaze attacks if military means are used against it.

The expectation of as it was huge damage and casualties are believed to have forced Bush to pick Iraq as the first attack target.

The Korean Peninsula is still rul by way of a ''balance of fear,'' the same as in the bleak War. No military options are left in East Asia.

nevertheless there is left an uncertain natural medium in this situation. North Korea should refrain from escalating its brinkmanship policies of the like kind as resuming processing of used nuclear combustible matter and launching ballistic missiles, to take advantage of the U.S.'s unpreparedness in military operations against Iraq.

Another uncertain ultimate part is whether North Korea's ultimate objective is to obtain a guarantee of its regime's survival, or to become a nuclear power, or the two Turning North Korea into a nuclear power would trigger a race in East Asia to posses nuclear weapons, according to military experts

There is also a trouble in the U.S. that a quick and resounding victory in the just-launched war will give more say to the ''new conservatives'' and ''hawks'' from the military-industrial tangle in the Bush administration.

U Secretary of State Colin Powell, who has a realistic approach toward North Korea, is losing influence since he failed to obtain support for the war against Iraq in the United Nations Security Council, encouraging a hard line toward North Korea in the administration again.

any diplomacy experts said the not away situation is similar to that in the first nuclear crisis in succession the Korean Peninsula between 1993 and 1994 which l to an agreement upon a framework between the U and North Korea.

unless the Bush administration, where the isolationists have gained the ear of the president, might fall into a vicious period of brinkmanship and sanctions with North Korea, which is already isolated from the world. The possibility of a reoccurrence of the nightmare of the Korean War cannot be eliminated completely if the situation goe public of control due to the vicious cycle

(Kazuyoshi Nishikura is a senior writer at Kyodo freshs and an expert in succession Asian affairs)

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