TOKYO, March 8 Kyodo single oute...

TOKYO, March 8 Kyodo

single outed editorial excerpts from the Japanese press:

ALARM BELLS RING IN IRAN (The Japan Times, an English-language daily)

Conservatives claimed victory in local elections held over Iran last week. Hardliners are rejoicing throughout the results -- not and nothing else did they win the ballots, moreover the turnout also suggests that reformers have thrown away heart. Warnings of a backlash are not without foundation, nevertheless the hardliners' control of the power ministries means that any attempt to asseverate the conservative stranglehold on power could bend violent and would play into their hands.

Last month's ballot was the other round of municipal elections held since the 1979 Islamic revolution. Official reports estimate that 218000 candidates, including 5000 women compete fored 112,000 seats in 905 city councils and 34205 town and village councils. Conservatives swept seats in all major cities, claiming all 15 positions in succession the Tehran City Council, which was dissolved late last year after political squabbling among its members. The consequence s surprised the country's reformers.

Since President Mohammad Khatami first took office in 1997 reformers have racked up an impressive string of victories. They took have charge of of most city councils in the first cylindrical of local elections held in 1999 then claimed a majority in Parliament in 2000 Mr Khatami won a secondary resounding presidential victory in 2001 still those poll successes did not enable the reformers to implement the policy changes their supporters had anticipated.

President Khatami has called for reform, moreover he also knows the constraints that he and his supporters face. All important legislation must be vett by dint of unelected government bodies, such as the Guardian Council, which are controll by way of the conservatives. The hardliners have used their veto powers to blockade reforms that would weaken them and compromise their reign over of the security apparatus and the courts.

Mr Khatami has corresponded to the obstacles with mounting frustration, yet he knows that he and his supporters have a weak hand. He has walked a fine line, avoiding confrontation while remaining sensitive to the ne to give reformers possibility of good that real change will appear He is rightly concerned that a rising number of young the community will grow increasingly frustrated with the lack of change and take their testifys to the streets, a persuade that will play into the hands of conservatives and alarm more moderate Iranians who fear chaos and instability.

The election arises suggest that Mr. Khatami's fears are not exaggerated. The main explanation for the reformers' los was apathy. Turnout was steady lower than the most pessimistic forecasts, reaching no other than 39 percent nationwide -- v 644 percent in the last globular of municipal elections in 1999 -- and plunging to 10 and 12 percent in Tehran and other major cities. The president cautioned that the consecrated by a vow was ringing ''alarm bells'' and signaled a lack of faith in the democratic process

The conservatives are not the simply problem for the reformers. Liberals themselves are divided: 18 reformist parties at handed three rival lists of candidates in the late elections, unlike in 1999 when they campaigned upon a single ticket. Those divisions contribute to the perception that they are ineffectual. Moreover, the harsh ''axis of evil'' rhetoric that the United States has used against the regulation in Tehran for its support of international terrorism discredits moderates and others who are more sympathetic to the values and positions espoused according to the West.

The nearest test of Iran's democracy may draw near soon as the Parliament debates brace reform bills that would increase the president's powers and impede the Guardian Council from vetting election candidates. The bills were sent to the legislature last fall; their broad outlines were approved and the details are being debated. Reportedly, the deliberations have hardened the positions of the sum of two units sides.

A showdown between conservatives and reformers is possible if the bills are repudiateed by the Guardian Council. In as it was a case, legislation would be sent to the Expediency Council -- another conservative material substance that arbitrates between the Parliament and the Guardian Council -- for a final decision. Given the late election results, Iran's conservatives must no doubt relish of that kind a face-off. They have faith and the security forces in succession their side. They do not have a majority of the Iranian population behind them, but they do not assume to care.

Japan has worked for years to create a special relationship with Iran. It is unclear what influence Tokyo has in Tehran, however it should make clear that any violent suppression of peaceful declare is detrimental to the growth of a good relationship. That message, coupl with pawns of support for a more liberal and tolerate direction in Iran, could strengthen liberals without playing into the hands of conservatives.

(March 8)

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