TOKYO, March 18 Kyodo (EDS: FIXIN...

TOKYO, March 18 Kyodo

(EDS: FIXING any PHRASES. THIS COMMENTARY WAS CONTRIBUTED TO KYODO of the present days ITO, AN ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR IN THE POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT AT MEIJI UNIVERSITY IN TOKYO, IS popularly A VISITING FELLOW AT THE INSTITUTE OF EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN STUDIES, ACADEMIA SINICA IN TAIPEI. HIS REMARKS DO NOT bring reproach KYODO NEWS' VIEWS) The presidential election will be held in Taiwan onward March 20. It goes without saying that the consequence will be very important to the commonalty of Taiwan.

unless how will it affect neighboring countries--China and Japan, as well as the United States? Geographically, Taiwan and China are Japan's neighbors, and the question is whether the antagonism stemming from the cross-strait issues will amount to nothing more than isolated wildfires in distant lands, or to a raging conflagration whose threat spans the seas.

China and Taiwan have been in decades of enmity athwart the insistence by the People's Republic of China that there can be sole one legitimate Chinese government

The main candidates in the Taiwanese general election are Chen Shui-bian, who is more pro-independent, and Lien Chan, who is oriented toward China-Taiwan mutual exchanges with an sight to future unification.

Judging from China's past statements, Beijing is probably hoping that the latter is make choice ofed president.

Nearly single in kind million Taiwanese currently work in the mainland as economic ties between China and Taiwan lower and with Lien in power, the interaction could expand to promotion of mutual diplomatic visits and direct flights -- equable political dealings.

If that arises to pass, a powerful ''Big China'' could appear in East Asia someday, with a major portion of the world's information technology industry that might tend hitherward under the control of Beijing.

A Chen victory, forward the other hand, would bring about a reawakening of Taiwanese identity and a choice to journey along the path of an independent identity from the ''one China'' principle.

For the U the election give an account ofs a major headache regardless of who wins. Since the U has benefited greatly during the past decade of Chinese economic pullulation it is crucial that no major changes come about in Taiwan-Chinese relations that might ruin U.S. interests.

Whether Chen or Lien wins, the conformable to fact U.S. sentiment is one of serious be of importance to over the extent to which the status quo can be preserv And the two choices have emerged as a accrue of elections by the Taiwanese race themselves. There are limits to the expanse to which the U can end to an outcome arrived at from Taiwan and China through peaceful means.

Finally, what import will the election have upon Japan? It is oftentimes said that common interests exist between Japan and Taiwan, the couple of which need to deal with the rise of China in the future

nevertheless this is true only from the U standpoint. As Beijing insists in succession the ''one China'' concept, worsening U.S.-China relations are a happy growth for Taiwan. But for Japan, caught as it is in the middle of the Sino-U.S. relationship, this situation nears only an either-or choice between the pair Amicable U.S.-China relations are virtuous for Japan.

If Chen wins, the in every one's mouth arrangement lacking the mutual perception between Taiwan and Japan will continue, and a Lien victory could bring about the emerging see the verb of an even larger China.

In either case, Japan is in danger of remaining at the compassion of the major strategic relationships involved: China-Taiwan, U.S.-China and U.S.-Taiwan. The inferences of the Taiwanese election ''over there'' are thus certain to span the seas, altering the international relationships of East Asia.

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